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The notion that a player
might change his handling of the doubling cube during a match, based upon the
relative
strength of his opponent, is an old one. When
I wrote Fish, my first book, in 1996, the advice in the backgammon
literature was
conjectural. Using software developed by Walter Trice I attempted to quantify
such changes. Though
I kept it as light as
possible; Fish is a highly technical book. It is of almost no interest
to the non-player, but for a
serious student, ready
for the challenge of, in Jeremy Bagai’s words, the “world’s most esoteric
backgammon
book,” it is the first
and last word on the subject. Fish is available for $30 + shipping from
Carol Joy Cole: cjc@flintbg.com.
Paradoxes and Probabilities Problem #20
White on roll; cube action?
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Barclay (Cooke) recommends that: a
beginner double if playing an expert; an expert not double a beginner unless
sure he’ll drop; that regardless of skill, for money this is double/take;
finally, at 11-11 in a 15-point match, this is double/drop no matter who is
playing. I agree with Barclay that an expert should only double if convinced
his opponent will drop. Otherwise, I think doubling by anyone, at anytime,
would be the greatest blunder since the Herschel Walker trade. |
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